Saturday, February 17, 2007

A Housing-led Recession?

Calculated Risk is my favorite economic blog. I thought I'd run what has got to be his favorite chart (click to enlarge):

This graph charts housing starts, housing completions, and residential construction employment. Housing starts are shifted 6 months into the future so that the tight corelation between the three is more apparent. Calculated Risk argues that since housing starts have fallen off a cliff, housing completions and employment will soon follow. He's calling for a loss of 400,000-600,000 construction jobs by this summer. Further, he estimates that this and other factors (like falling mortgage equity extraction) will be enough to tip us into a recession. I'm no economist, but it sounds to me like a pretty persuasive case.

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