You might have seen yesterday's Gallup poll results showing undeclared candidate Fred Thompson in third place with 12%, led only by Giuliani with 31% and McCain with 22%. But look also at the results of this internet poll that shows Thompson leading. I know, it's unscientific, but respondents are likelier to be the diehard Republican activists -- volunteers, donors, mavens -- who will be the bellwethers for the coming race.
I'm struck by how much opposition there is to McCain in the internet poll. I had considered it likely that McCain would get the nod simply because it was his turn; Republicans are awfully predictable that way. Perhaps I should have remembered that the key to the conservative temperament is respect for authority -- McCain's six-year-long on-and-off defiance of the President is probably more of a liability for him in the primary than Iraq is. As for Giuliani, I very much doubt that he will survive the first "Too Liberal for New Hampshire" ad buy from one of his opponents.
If I had to take a wild guess, I would say it will be Obama vs Thompson in the general.