Thursday, April 5, 2007

The Book on the Race

Because markets are highly efficient aggregators of information, I'm convinced bookies give a more accurate outlook on the prospects of an electoral race than pundits do. So here, without comment, are the latest prices from Intrade. Consider them as the equivalent of percentage odds:

Democratic Nomination
Clinton - 48.0
Obama - 31.7
Gore - 9.0
Edwards - 8.0

Republican Nomination
Giuliani - 29.0
Thompson - 19.8
McCain - 19.2
Romney - 16.9

General Election
Clinton - 27.2
Obama - 19.9
Giuliani - 16.0
McCain - 13.7
Thompson - 10.3
Romney - 7.9
Gore - 7.8
Edwards - 5.0

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